Some indicators warrant attention
By the time it's in the news, it's too late.
We track 33 economic signals and give you a single daily score — so you can plan ahead with confidence.
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Today's economic pulse
News with instant impact analysis. Available on Guardian & Sentinel plans.
Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts as inflation cools
Federal Reserve · 2 hours ago
Rate cuts ease borrowing costs across housing, auto loans, and corporate debt. Historically, a rate-cutting cycle has preceded economic stabilization within 6–12 months.
Initial jobless claims rise to highest level in 14 months
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 5 hours ago
Rising claims above 250K preceded 5 of the last 6 recessions. This is one of our most heavily weighted signals.
News digest updated daily for subscribers
See exactly what's inside
Here's what your dashboard looks like with real data
Updated Mar 25, 2026
Most indicators are stable but yield curve inversion and rising jobless claims warrant attention. No immediate action needed.
How it works
Three steps. One score. Updated every morning.
We Collect the Data
Every morning, we pull fresh data from 33 economic indicators via the Federal Reserve and other trusted sources.
We Calculate Your Score
Each indicator is checked against historical recession thresholds. Our algorithm combines them into one score: 0 (safe) to 100 (crisis).
You Stay Informed
Check your score each morning. Normal means healthy. Caution means pay attention. Warning means be careful. Crisis means take action.
33 indicators. Zero guesswork.
We monitor the signals that have preceded every U.S. recession since 1970.
Financial & Monetary
- Yield Curve (2Y-10Y spread)
- 10Y-3M Treasury Spread
- Financial Conditions Index
- Repo Market Stress
- Money Supply (M2)
Jobs & Labor
- Unemployment Pace (Sahm Rule)
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Unemployment Rate
- Temp Worker Cuts
- JOLTS Quits Rate
- Job Posting Velocity
Credit & Lending
- Bank Lending Standards
- High-Yield Credit Spreads
- Credit Card Delinquencies
- Mortgage Delinquency
- CRE Stress
- SLOOS Lending Standards
Consumer
- Consumer Confidence
- Real Retail Sales
- Real Income
- Personal Savings Rate
- Debt Service Ratio
Housing
- Home Construction (Building Permits)
- Months Supply of Houses
- Housing Starts
Production & Trade
- Manufacturing PMI
- Services PMI
- Business Investment (Durable Goods)
- GDPNow (Atlanta Fed)
- Industrial Production
- Inventory/Sales Ratio
- Freight Activity
- Leading Economic Index
Markets & Policy
- Market Breadth
- VIX Volatility Index
- Energy Price Shock (Oil)
- Trade Policy Uncertainty
All indicators updated daily from trusted government and financial sources
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Watcher
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- Daily Doom Score + alert level
- Plain-English summary
- Top 3 stress drivers
- All 33 indicators (compact view)
- 7-day trend snapshot
For casual awareness
Guardian
The full picture for informed decisions.
- Everything in Watcher
- 90-day trend history
- Deep-dive indicator details
- Daily change breakdown — see what moved and why
- Full indicator sparklines
- Email alerts (threshold-based)
- Weekly economic digest
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Full data history + export — for advisors and serious planners.
- Everything in Guardian
- 365-day full history
- CSV & PDF data export
- Custom alert thresholdsSoon
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Frequently asked questions
Don't wait for the headlines.
One score. Every morning. Know where the economy stands before making your next financial decision.
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