doom score slips to 32 as energy and sentiment dominate the risk picture
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score fell two points to 32, its lowest reading in recent weeks, as prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds and several indicators edged toward improvement. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the dominant stress contributors, both fully activated, while Iran-related oil volatility keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score closed at 32, down two points from yesterday's 34, and below both the 7-day average of 35.6 and the 30-day average of 34.7. The alert level holds at Caution. The 90-day maximum stands at 38, meaning today's reading sits six points below the recent peak. Core 6 sub-score prints at 25.42, reflecting relatively contained stress across the six most-weighted indicators. Diffusion Index is 35.29, indicating that roughly a third of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis — a minority, but a persistent one. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and the 10Y-3M Yield Curve. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence are both at 100% activation, making them the clearest sources of composite score pressure.
What Changed Today
Energy Price Shock holds at 83.51 with full activation and a worsening trend — no relief there. Consumer Confidence sits at 56.6, also fully activated and worsening, consistent with households absorbing elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 remains fully activated but its trend flipped to improving, a modest offset. Home Construction activation is 58.6% with a stable trend. The 10Y-3M Yield Curve improved to 0.55, with activation at 60.9% and a continuing improving trend — the curve is normalising, slowly. Temp Worker Cuts and Real Retail Sales both carry improving trends. Weekly Layoff Filings sits at 209,750 with zero activation, and Financial Conditions prints at -0.465 with zero activation — two Core 6 members contributing no stress. The net two-point decline reflects incremental improvement across several mid-tier indicators rather than any single sharp reversal.
News Drivers
The dominant macro narrative is energy. The IEA's warning of historic disruption from the Iran conflict maps directly onto the Energy Price Shock indicator's 100% activation and worsening trend. Crude import disruptions, elevated oil volatility, and downstream cost pressures — including reported fuel surcharges above $100 on long-haul flights — are feeding into manufacturing input costs and compressing consumer purchasing power. The Iran ceasefire deadline adds a second layer: conflicting diplomatic signals are sustaining volatility in oil markets, foreign exchange, and equities, with Wall Street closing lower on renewed tensions. Neither development has a clean resolution in sight, which keeps the energy channel open as a score driver. On the other side of the ledger, UnitedHealth's raised 2026 earnings guidance — adjusted EPS now guided above $18.25 versus the prior floor of $17.75 — offers a data point on corporate resilience in at least one large sector. Healthcare profitability holding up under medical inflation does not directly move the composite score, but it is inconsistent with the broad margin compression narrative that typically accompanies late-cycle deterioration. Prediction markets moved in a constructive direction. Polymarket's 2026 recession contract is at 26.50%, down from 29.50% a week ago. Kalshi sits at 24.00%, down from 25.00%. Both venues trimmed odds meaningfully over the week, though neither is pricing imminent contraction. Google Trends data was not available for today's snapshot.
Historical Context
At 32, the Doom Score sits two points below the 7-day average of 35.6 and below the 30-day average of 34.7 — a mild but consistent drift lower. The 90-day maximum of 38 was the ceiling of recent stress; today's reading is six points beneath it, suggesting the composite has not revisited that peak. Scores in the low-30s are historically associated with late-cycle caution rather than imminent contraction. The 2015-2016 industrial slowdown and the mid-2019 pre-inversion window both produced extended periods in this band without triggering a recession call. The current configuration — energy fully activated, labor largely quiescent, credit stress near zero — has some resemblance to the 2018 fourth-quarter episode, when oil price volatility and tightening financial conditions drove composite risk scores higher before a sharp reversal. The key difference then was that Financial Conditions were tightening materially; today that indicator prints at zero activation.
What to Watch
The Iran situation is the most immediate variable. A ceasefire resolution would directly pressure Energy Price Shock lower and could move the composite score by two to four points on its own given the indicator's tier-1 weight of 10. Conversely, an escalation that pushes crude materially higher would entrench the worsening trend and potentially lift Consumer Confidence stress further. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace sits at 40% activation with a stable trend — a deterioration there would be significant given its tier-1 weight of 12. Weekly Layoff Filings at 209,750 carries zero activation; a sustained move above 230,000 would begin to register. The Yield Curve at 0.55 is improving but still 60.9% activated — continued steepening would reduce that contribution. Consumer Confidence at 56.6 and fully activated would need to recover toward the low-60s to begin losing activation. The next scheduled labor data releases are the primary near-term triggers for score movement in either direction.