doom score holds at 30 as oil and confidence weigh
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, sitting below both the 7-day average of 32.3 and the 30-day average of 34.1. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the heaviest contributors. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds modestly. The score is stable, not improving.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 30, flat on the day and within the Caution band. The Core 6 sub-score prints at 18.28, a relatively contained reading given that two of the six — Yield Curve (10Y-3M) and Home Construction — carry partial activations of 60.9% and 58.6% respectively. The Diffusion Index at 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis, a modestly reassuring signal. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, and Yield Curve (10Y-3M). Consumer Confidence at 56.6 and Energy Price Shock at 83.51 both sit at full 100% activation, anchoring the score's floor.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped alert level today, and the score held flat. Energy Price Shock remains fully activated at 83.51 with a worsening trend. Consumer Confidence continues to deteriorate at 56.6. Months Supply of Houses, also fully activated at 9.7, is the one bright spot among top drivers — its trend is improving. Yield Curve (10Y-3M) at 0.55 is trending better, its activation easing toward the lower end of its partial range. Real Retail Sales improved in trend direction. JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 and Real Income at 1.06 both shifted to worsening trends, a quiet deterioration in labor-market dynamism worth monitoring. Weekly Layoff Filings at 209,750 remains at zero activation, keeping the labor channel from amplifying the score.
News Drivers
The two dominant negative stories — Iran geopolitical tensions and their knock-on effect on oil markets — map directly onto Energy Price Shock's full activation and worsening trend. Canceled US-Iran talks, fresh sanctions on Iranian assets and Chinese refineries, and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk are sustaining elevated energy price uncertainty even as spot oil prices show mixed signals. The third story, technology sector strength driving equity indices to record closes, is consistent with Financial Conditions printing at -0.465 with zero activation — equity resilience is holding that channel closed for now. Prediction markets eased: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 25.5% from 29.5% a week ago; Kalshi moved to 23% from 24%. Google Trends 'recession' interest slipped to 46 from 48, a modest but directionally consistent softening in public anxiety.
Historical Context
At 30, the score sits four points below the 30-day average of 34.1 and eight points below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is near the lower boundary of the Caution band. The 7-day average of 32.3 confirms a gentle downward drift over the past week. Scores in the 28–32 range have historically corresponded to late-cycle softness without imminent contraction — the 2019 mid-year plateau and the 2015–16 industrial slowdown both produced extended periods in this zone. What distinguishes the current configuration is the combination of fully activated energy stress and consumer confidence deterioration alongside a labor market that has not yet cracked, a mix that kept scores range-bound rather than trending sharply in either direction during those prior episodes.
What to Watch
The next material catalyst is the April jobs report, where an Unemployment Pace reading that pushes its activation above 50% would add meaningful weight to the Core 6. JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 is trending worse; a further decline toward 1.7 would tighten its activation band. Consumer Confidence at 56.6 is already fully activated — any further deterioration deepens the score's floor rather than lifting it. On the energy side, a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions that pulls Energy Price Shock's value below its activation threshold would be the single largest potential score reducer. Yield Curve (10Y-3M) at 0.55 is improving; a move above 0.75 would reduce its partial activation materially. Financial Conditions at -0.465 remains comfortably below its stress threshold, but equity volatility from geopolitical shocks could close that gap quickly.