score holds at 26 as energy and housing stress persist quietly
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score printed flat at 26 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory. Beneath the stillness, Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, and housing-side indicators continue to carry the bulk of weighted stress. Prediction markets nudged recession odds higher; Hormuz supply risks are the live macro threat.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 26, unchanged from yesterday and below both the 7-day average of 27.7 and the 30-day average of 30.6. The All Clear band runs from 0 to 29; the score sits near its ceiling. Core 6 sub-score is 16.85, a notably low reading that reflects how little stress is registering in the dashboard's most-weighted indicators — Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, and High-Yield Spread are all at 0% activation. The Diffusion Index of 41.18 means roughly four in ten tracked indicators are deteriorating on a trend basis, a non-trivial share for a score this low. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income — a cluster concentrated in the consumer and housing channels rather than credit or labor.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped between alert bands today, and the score held flat as a result. The most active stress points remain Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation with a worsening trend, and Energy Price Shock at 75.1% activation, also worsening. Months Supply of Houses sits at 85.7% activation but has stabilised. Real Income's activation of 78.0% with a worsening trend is quietly notable — real purchasing power erosion tends to feed into consumer stress with a lag. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace dropped to 26.0% activation and continues to trend better; Consumer Credit Stress fell to 17.6% activation. Trade Policy Uncertainty, despite a still-elevated absolute value of 212.28, is trending improving and its activation has compressed to 17.8%. The net picture is stasis: deteriorating consumer and energy signals offset by a calmer labor and credit backdrop.
News Drivers
The flat score belies a genuinely unsettled macro backdrop. UBS's warning on global oil stockpiles approaching all-time lows if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed maps directly onto the Energy Price Shock indicator's worsening trend — crude at 62.55 is already activating that indicator at 75.1%, and a supply disruption of the scale described would push activation materially higher. The second story — Treasury yields above 4.5% and incoming Fed Chair Warsh facing a divided FOMC — is consistent with Financial Conditions remaining stable but not easing; the indicator sits at -0.524 with 0% activation, but the directional risk from a hawkish Fed is asymmetric. Geopolitical instability and a 1% S&P decline round out the picture. Prediction markets reflect the unease: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract rose to 22.5% from 21.5% a week ago; Kalshi moved to 18% from 17%. Google Trends 'recession' interest is up 8% week-over-week to 54.
Historical Context
At 26, the score sits three points below the 7-day average of 27.7 and nearly five below the 30-day average of 30.6, suggesting a mild near-term easing trend. The 90-day maximum of 38 — reached during a more acute stress episode earlier this year — remains well above current levels. Scores in the mid-to-upper 20s with a Diffusion Index above 40 have historically represented a transitional zone: not distressed, but with enough underlying deterioration to make the All Clear designation feel provisional. The 2019 mid-cycle slowdown saw extended periods in this range before the Fed's insurance cuts stabilised conditions. The current configuration — weak consumer confidence, housing inventory overhang, and an energy supply threat — has some resemblance to late-2018 readings before that episode's sharper deterioration.
What to Watch
The score is four points from crossing into the Caution band at 30. Energy Price Shock is the most plausible near-term trigger: any escalation in Hormuz disruption that lifts crude meaningfully above current levels would push that indicator's activation higher and add weighted score points directly. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already the top contributor; a further deterioration in the next Michigan or Conference Board print would compound the pressure. Real Income's worsening trend bears watching — if nominal wage growth fails to keep pace with energy-driven inflation, the activation on that indicator will climb. On the labor side, Weekly Layoff Filings at 203,750 and 0% activation is a key stabiliser; a print above roughly 230k would begin to register. The next Initial Claims release is the most immediate scheduled data point that could shift the score.