doom score holds at 26 as consumer and energy stress persist
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score printed flat at 26 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory but sitting above its 30-day average trend line. Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, and Energy Price Shock continue to carry the most weighted stress. Prediction markets nudged higher on Iran-related uncertainty.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 26, unchanged from the prior session and below both the 7-day average of 27.1 and the 30-day average of 30. The 90-day maximum was 38, meaning the current reading sits roughly a third of the way from the floor to the recent ceiling. The Core 6 sub-score prints at 16.85 — notably low, reflecting that the heaviest-weighted indicators (Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, Initial Claims) are largely dormant. The Diffusion Index at 41.18 signals that slightly fewer than half of tracked indicators are in deteriorating territory. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income — a mix of demand-side softness and supply-side cost pressure rather than the financial-system stress that typically anchors recession calls.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped its alert band today, and the score held flat as a result. The most active stress remains concentrated in Consumer Confidence (112.5% activation, worsening trend), Energy Price Shock (75.1%, worsening), and Real Income (78.0%, worsening) — all three trending in the wrong direction but none accelerating sharply enough to move the composite. Unemployment Pace and Consumer Credit Stress both carry improving trends, providing an offset. Weekly Layoff Filings sits at 203,750 with 0.0% activation, confirming the labor market has not yet transmitted the demand-side softness into outright job losses. The Diffusion Index is essentially unchanged, suggesting breadth of deterioration is neither expanding nor contracting at the margin.
News Drivers
Three macro themes are shaping the backdrop without yet registering as discrete score-moving events. Iran geopolitical tensions are injecting volatility into oil markets — directly relevant given Energy Price Shock's worsening trend and 75.1% activation. G7 coordination and Trump's signaled openness to nuclear negotiations create a push-pull dynamic that keeps oil pricing unsettled rather than directionally resolved. UK labor market deterioration under war-related uncertainty is a developed-economy signal worth monitoring, though it does not yet appear in domestic indicators. Rising Fed rate hike expectations — reflected in gold's retreat to 1.5-month lows and higher borrowing costs — sit in tension with the current 0.0% activation on Financial Conditions, suggesting markets are pricing tighter conditions that the index has not yet absorbed. Prediction markets moved higher: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract is at 24.5% (up from 22.5% a week ago); Kalshi at 19.0% versus 18.0%. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 11% week-over-week to 71, a modest easing in public anxiety.
Historical Context
At 26, the score sits one point below the 7-day average of 27.1 and four points below the 30-day average of 30, suggesting a mild downward drift over the past month. The 90-day maximum of 38 was reached during a more acute stress window; the current reading represents a meaningful decompression from that peak. Scores in the mid-to-upper 20s have historically been consistent with soft-patch conditions rather than recession onset — the 2015-2016 manufacturing slowdown and the mid-2019 pre-emptive Fed cut cycle both produced extended periods in this range. The distinguishing feature of the current configuration is that the stress is concentrated in consumer-facing and energy channels rather than credit or labor, which historically has been a slower-burning risk profile.
What to Watch
Energy Price Shock is the indicator most likely to move the score in the near term — its worsening trend and 75.1% activation mean any sustained oil price escalation tied to Iran developments could push its contribution higher. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already the top weighted driver; a further deterioration in the next Conference Board or Michigan print would add directly to the composite. Real Income at 78.0% activation and worsening trend is one data revision away from a higher activation band. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace sits at just 26.0% activation with an improving trend — a reversal there would be the most consequential single shift given its Tier 1, weight-12 status. The next Initial Claims print will confirm whether the current 0.0% activation holds or whether the demand-side softness is beginning to transmit into filings.