Doom Score jumps seven points as oil and housing stress mount
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score surged to 33 from 26, crossing from All Clear into Caution, driven by Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, and housing-side indicators. Geopolitical pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest macro catalyst. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly; Google Trends interest in recession is falling.
By the Numbers
A seven-point single-day move is the sharpest shift in the current 90-day window, lifting the score to 33 and crossing the alert threshold from All Clear into Caution. The Core 6 sub-score prints at 21.76 — relatively contained — which tells the story: the pressure is concentrated outside the most-weighted indicators. Diffusion Index at 41.18 means roughly four in ten tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis, up from a level consistent with the prior 26 reading. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Energy Price Shock, Home Construction, Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income. Notably, the Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, High-Yield Spread, and Initial Claims — four of the Core 6 — all print at 0.0% activation, which is why the Core 6 sub-score remains subdued despite the headline jump.
What Changed Today
Energy Price Shock is the lead mover, with an activation of 75.1% and a worsening trend — its value of 62.55 reflects the oil price pressure building through the Hormuz risk channel. Consumer Confidence deteriorated further, now at 53.3 with 112.5% activation, the only indicator exceeding its stress threshold. Home Construction holds at 68.2% activation with a stable trend, and Months Supply of Houses sits at 85.7% — both housing indicators are elevated but not newly deteriorating. Real Income at 0.44% growth carries 78.0% activation with a worsening trend, suggesting purchasing power is being quietly eroded. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace, Consumer Credit Stress, Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Hiring Slowdown all show positive trend direction, providing a partial offset. No Core 6 indicator tripped today.
News Drivers
Iran's consolidation of Strait of Hormuz checkpoints is the clearest single driver behind Energy Price Shock's worsening trend. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil trade; even partial disruption risk reprices energy costs across agriculture, aviation, and manufacturing — all of which feed into the Real Income and Consumer Confidence deterioration visible in today's snapshot. The broader geopolitical inflation theme, with central banks including the Bank of England monitoring fallout and bond markets pricing in supply-side price pressure, reinforces the policy-constraint narrative. The semiconductor and AI sector rotation story is market-relevant but does not map directly to any recession indicator in the current snapshot. Prediction markets eased: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract sits at 22.5%, down from 23.5% a week ago; Kalshi at 17%, down from 18%. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 11% week-over-week to 66, suggesting public anxiety is not yet amplifying the macro signal.
Historical Context
At 33, the score sits seven points above the 7-day average of 26.3 and four above the 30-day average of 29.3, but remains below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is the highest in the trailing 90-day window if today's 33 clears that prior peak — it does not, sitting five points below the 38 ceiling. The pattern of a score in the low-30s driven by energy and consumer sentiment rather than credit or labor has precedent in the 2022 pre-recession scare and the 2019 mid-cycle slowdown, both of which saw elevated oil and softening confidence without Core 6 deterioration. In both episodes, whether the score continued climbing depended heavily on whether labor-market indicators followed the consumer sentiment lead. Currently, they have not.
What to Watch
Energy Price Shock at 75.1% activation is the indicator closest to pushing into a higher stress band; a sustained oil price move above the current implied threshold would lift its contribution materially. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already past its trigger — further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan sentiment prints would widen the gap. Real Income at 78.0% activation and worsening is one bad CPI or wage print from crossing 80%. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 26.0% activation and improving is the key stabiliser — a Sahm Rule reading that reverses trend would change the picture significantly. The next Initial Claims print is the near-term tripwire; a reading above 230k would begin pressuring that 0.0% activation. Prediction markets would likely reprice above 25% on Polymarket if Energy Price Shock crosses 85% activation.